Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
